Models for Managing the Elimination of Consequences of Critical Situations at Oil Refining and Chemical Enterprises

The article is devoted to the development and application of system-dynamic models for managing the process of liquidation of emergency situations at oil-refining and chemical enterprises. A complex of heterogeneous system-dynamic models has been developed, allowing enterprise management according to a criterion that minimizes the deviation of relevant indicators of safe functioning from the values recommended by the decision-maker. A formulation of the problem of managing the process of liquidation of emergency situations is presented, and a comprehensive methodology is proposed, including the construction of cause-and-effect graphs, regression analysis of functional dependencies, numerical solution of a system of nonlinear differential equations, as well as a procedure for correcting the system-dynamic model. The complex of models makes it possible to take into account key safety indicators, external factors, and nonlinear effects, ensuring high accuracy of forecasting and risk analysis. The obtained results can be used in the development of control systems for the process of liquidation of consequences of emergency situations at oil-refining and chemical enterprises of the country, as well as in training systems for facility-level units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations.